Orders worth some € 15 billion for the "contracts of the century"! This was the headline news that greeted the award to Alstom and Bombardier, between end 2009 and early 2010, of mega framework-contracts for their regional trains, with as many as 1000 Regiolis and 860 Regio2N sets expected to be ordered by the Regions. This in terms of workload was meant to represent over 50% of the French rolling-stock market until 2025, but barring a firm tranche for 300 sets, hardly any fresh orders have been registered...Hence the alarm bells which the two manufacturers have been sounding  for several  weeks now as warning that unless something is done, the Reichshoffen (Lower Rhine) plant first, and next the Crespin plant (North Region) would run out of contracts as early as 2015. Their message was duly heeded by the Government.

Friday 11 January: Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg and Transport Minister  Frédéric Cuvillier seize the opportunity afforded by the first Rail Sector Strategic Committee meeting to announce  that  efforts are under way to find a suitable porterage-type solution, for example involving the Deposit Bank as instrument for funding the procurement of new Regional Express Trains (TER). Already this year, a € 400 million cash injection should facilitate the procurement of 50 Corail sets to replace ageing inter-regional (TET) units. Lastly, some € 450 million will be made available to local authorities for their mass-transit projects on dedicated right-of-way. The government is banking on orders worth € 5 to 6 billion over ten years.

 The demand for TER services is real, with ridership -  according to the Association of French Regions (ARF) - growing by over 50% since 2002 when the regions became Transport Sponsoring Authorities. Traffic volumes are expected to more than treble by 2030. The Regions have well and truly imparted fresh momentum to  TER services, courtesy of their massive investments in state-of-the-art rolling stock. Yet this momentum is tailing-off, and to quote Jacques Auxiette, President of the   Pays-de-la-Loire Regional Board and Chairman of the ARF Transport Commission ..."...ever since the Fillon Government in 2010 withdrew the tax revenues accruing to the regions , the latter are no longer in a position to sustain their transport policies. As a minimum response to their transport needs, the Regions are projecting to order 152 Regiolis sets (value : € 1.2 billion) and 85 Regio2N (value: € 850 million), but of course none of these investments can really be pledged in the absence of fresh resources".

 Alstom Transport Director (Europe) Jerôme Wallut  has issued the following warning: "...the situation is serious..". The fate of the Reichshoffen plant hinges on the Regiolis project. The last trainset ordered will leave the factory floor mid-2015. Given the delivery times involved (around 18 months), orders must necessarily be placed as early as this year for there to be programme continuity.  Alstom  factories employ a  dedicated workforce of over 400 on train-building activities, and their sub-contractors  twice as many ." What we have is an industrial system structured around the Regiolis train concept", observes Jerôme Wallut alarmingly, "and to shut it down would be disastrous, while reactivating it would be virtually impossible at a later stage".  Bombardier 's sole plant in France at  Crespin, with its 2000-strong workforce, builds not only Regio2N sets, but also Francilien rolling stock and Paris Metro MI 09 sets. «Since 2010, orders have well and truly flatlined", laments Bombardier  Transport (France) President Jean Bergé who, after observing that  a full workload is guaranteed until end 2015, adds the warning note  that  "production will come to a virtual halt a few months later".

A replacement programme

The other solution centres on inter-regional trains or TETs, at least if the Public Authorities order Regiolis and  Regio2N  long-haul versions to replace life-expired Corail sets. TET replacement needs are valued at between € 2 and 3 billion over ten years. Filling these needs would provide a lifeline for the industrial platforms dedicated to regional trains. The Alstom people are convinced of this, with Jerôme Wallut making the point " that discussions with Government have been ongoing for over one year and that SNCF too started addressing the issue several months ago, as this solution will act as a catalyst for replenishing the order books". By contrast some of his opposite numbers remain non-committal, with SNCF Proximités even arguing "that the deployment of Regiolis or Regio2N sets as a substitute for TET trains is not on the agenda" . SNCF would actually prefer to recycle its ageing TGVs after refurbishment. A decision by the Public Authorities is expected in the coming months.

For FIF Delegate-General Jean-Pierre Audoux "...if  you exclude the metro and tramway markets,   then every other French rail manufacturing segment suffers from a lack of visibility". To delay the industrial calendar would seriously impact on the army of sub-contractors, as exemplified by rail-seat maker Saira Seats at Andrézieux-Bouthéon (Loire Region), whose future hinges on Regiolis and Regio2N programmes. Hence Saira Seats Vice President Rémi Ullman's " fears of a deferment of new orders coupled with a staggering of those already in the pipeline...". . For boilermaker  Guillet at Duppigheim(Alsace Region), diesel-tank production for Regiolis trains was the activity which ensured  workload visibility at a time when all other markets are receding. As warned by its Director-General Fabien Guillet « ... any postponement of the Regiolis production programme will have a dramatic impact on company activities....".

Given the predicament facing the French railway manufacturing sector, today's dream can so easily turn into tomorrow's nightmare!